Chairman’s Message

<Main Points>

PM Sanae Takaichi triumphed in the Lower House election.

Her popularity and the failure of the opposition parties were the major causes

PM Takaichi can pass legislation without opposition parties

Energy/climate change policy direction maintained but mega solar affected

1. PM Sanae Takaichi’s triumph

In the snap election held on February 8, PM Sanae Takaichi achieved a historic triumph. The LDP, the Liberal Democratic Party, obtained 316 seats, nearly a 60% increase from the pre-election number of 198. This is the largest number of seats the LDP has secured in its long history after WWII. The LDP now controls more than two-thirds of the Lower House. With its coalition partner, Ishin or the Japan Innovation Party, which won 36 seats, the ruling bloc controls 352 seats out of the total of 465 seats.
　The newly created opposition party, the CRA or the Centrist Reform Alliance, which resulted from a merger between CDP, the Constitutional Democratic Party, and Komeito, a Buddhist-backed party, only secured 49 seats, collapsing from the combined total of 167 seats before the election.

2. PM Takaichi’s popularity + Failure of the opposition parties

The most important reason for the triumph was PM Takaichi’s very strong popularity. Her approval rating was more than 70% just before the election. Being the first female prime minister in Japan's history has certainly helped. In addition to her clear and straightforward comments, she is considered hardworking and someone who makes things happen. Her famous motto is "I will work, work, work, and work thoroughly," which has been viewed favorably by the public. She has already abolished the additional tax on gasoline, making gasoline prices nearly 15% lower. She has also committed to freezing the consumption tax on food and beverage for two years. In diplomacy, she played drums with the visiting Korean President Lee Jae-myung and joined President Trump onboard a US Navy vessel like a rock star. She is viewed as very different from generations of old male LDP prime ministers.
　The CRA, quickly formed in response to PM Takaichi's surprise dissolution of the Lower House, failed to create momentum. It was hoped to deliver more than 2 by 1+1, but on the contrary, the result turned out to be far less than the 2 hoped for. Significant blocks of supporters of the original two parties apparently did not support the newly created party. There was not enough time to bring the original supporters onboard. In addition, the centrist position was hard to sell to younger voters who have no memories of the tension between the left and the right, especially during the Cold War. CRA’s support was stronger among voters older than 60 but very weak among younger voters.
　The diplomatic tension between Japan and China, triggered by PM Takaichi's comments on the Taiwan contingency, apparently helped solidify her support. The stronger the criticism and economic coercion from Beijing, the more firmly voters in Japan, especially the younger ones, stood behind PM Takaichi. The provocative words and actions from Beijing helped discredit CRA's pacifist position.
　There also seems to be a structural change driven by shifting political sentiments across generations. While the older generation tends to favor a pacifist stance and liberal policies, the younger generation generally supports strengthening defense and leans more toward conservative values. In fact, while the Communist Party lost seats, falling from eight to four, and the remainder of the old Socialist Party failed to secure a seat, Sanseito, a Japanese version of MAGA, opposing immigration, increased its seats from 2 to 15. This generational shift has helped PM Takaichi, who comes from the more conservative side of the LDP.

3. PM Takaichi can now pass legislation without the support of the opposition parties

By winning the majority of the Lower House, PM Takaichi is guaranteed to be reelected as the Prime Minister. She can also pass budgets with the consent of the Lower House, to which the Constitution gives greater power than the Upper House.
　Control of more than two-thirds of the Lower House is very significant for legislation. While consent by the two Houses is generally required for legislation, the Constitution gives the Lower House special power to overcome opposition from the Upper House by securing more than two-thirds of the vote.
　With this power, PM Takaichi can pursue almost all policies with the coalition alone. There is no need to obtain support from the opposition parties. The only exception is the amendment of the Constitution, which will require more than two-thirds of support from both Houses.
　The next national-level election will probably not take place until the summer of 2028, when half of the Upper House will face an election. She will have two and a half years without worrying about national-level elections. As the term of the Lower House is four years, she can maintain her strong control over the Lower House for four years if she does not call a general election before the term expires. PM Takaichi can enjoy a very high level of stability, enabling her to pursue various policies, including controversial ones. This stability should also help her in top-level diplomacy, which favors leaders with strength and long tenure.

4. Direction of energy/climate change policies maintained with negative attitudes toward mega solar

The LDP pledged to keep the commitment to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 in its campaign promises. As PM Takaichi reconfirmed her intention to honor and realize the campaign promises in her press conference after the triumph, the basic direction of energy/climate change policies of the Japanese Government is expected to be maintained.
　But judging from her strong interest in economic security and resilience, the relative priority of climate change policies may be adjusted. She will stress energy security and affordability much more. The immediate target of change will be mega solar. Mega solar projects are often opposed by local communities with concerns about the impact on the landscape and the risk of landslides. Regulation will be strengthened to scrutinize mega solar projects. The Feed-in Premium will most likely be removed from new mega solar projects.
　On the other hand, nuclear power will be promoted. PM Takaichi is known to have a strong interest in fusion technology. Hydrogen and CCS, areas in which Japan is considered a leader, will continue to receive support. Perovskite PV, a light and flexible solar technology developed in Japan, is often referred to by PM Takaichi as a promising alternative to conventional solar panels, which are in most cases imported from China. PM Takaichi will place greater emphasis on strengthening supply chains for clean energy, including critical minerals.
　PM Takaichi will continue supporting the energy transition but with greater emphasis on enhancing energy security and on contributing to Japan’s economy and industry.

　I have shared with fellow readers my initial views on the electoral triumph of PM Takaichi. I intend to update readers on policy developments under PM Takaichi in the coming Chairman’s Messages.