Research Paper

Energy Strategy Insights - The New Normal in the Global Crude Oil Market

Author	Ichiro Kutani
Summary	The outlook for the conflict between the United States and Iran remains uncertain. While armed clashes have subsided, both sides continue to block each other’s access to the Strait of Hormuz. Iran asserts its right to ...
Outline	The outlook for the conflict between the United States and Iran remains uncertain, and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked. While the blockade has deprived the world of approximately 15 million barrels of crude oil per day, nearly 80 percent of that lost supply has been restored through pipelines bypassing the strait and ships navigating through it despite the blockade. As the expansion of bypass pipelines and increased oil production outside the Persian Gulf proceed, we hope that a “new normal” will emerge in the international crude oil market, one in which a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz no longer poses a significant risk.
Keyword	insights, Strait of Hormuz, crude oil, bypass pipeline, production increase
Media	ＨＰ (8/28/2026)
URL	https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/en/energy_strategy_insights.html
Report PDF	https://eneken.ieej.or.jp/data/13496.pdf